Research

Articles in Refereed Journals

Labor Market Polarization, Job Tasks, and Monopsony Power (with Ronald Bachmann and Hanna Frings). Journal of Human Resources, 57(S), S11-S49.

Abstract: Using a semistructural approach based on a dynamic monopsony model, we examine to what extent workers performing different job tasks are exposed to different degrees of monopsony power and whether these differences in monopsony power have changed over the last 30 years. We find that workers performing mostly nonroutine cognitive tasks are exposed to a higher degree of monopsony power than workers performing routine or nonroutine manual tasks. Job-specific human capital and nonpecuniary job characteristics are the most likely explanations for this result. We find no evidence that labor market polarization has increased monopsony power over time.

• Ökonomenstimme (in German): Verändert der technologische Wandel die Monopsonmacht auf dem Arbeitsmarkt?

How Important are Within-Occupation Task Changes for Wage Growth? Evidence from Administrative Micro Data (with Ronald Bachmann, Colin Green, and Arne Uhlendorff). Ruhr Economic Paper No. 975. 

Accepted at Economica

Abstract: We examine how changes in task content over time condition occupational wage development. Using survey data from Germany, we document substantial heterogeneity in within-occupational changes in task content. Combining this evidence with administrative data on individual employment outcomes over a 25-year period, we find important heterogeneity in wage penalties amongst jobs that were initially routine task intensive. While occupations that remain (relatively) routine intensive generate substantial wage penalties, occupations with a decreasing routine intensity experience stable or even increasing wages. These findings suggest that changing task profiles of occupations are an important adaptation mechanism to technological change. They cannot be explained by composition or cohort effects.

• Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (in German): Automatisierung der Arbeit. Ein Hoch auf die Routinejobs. 

Working Papers

Labor Market Frictions and Spillover Effects from Publicly Announced Sectoral Minimum Wages [Current Version] [Online Appendix ]

Submitted

Abstract: This paper analyzes the horizontal spillover effects of Germany's first sectoral minimum wage. Using a difference-in-differences estimation, I examine the impact of the public announcement and introduction of the minimum wage on sub-minimum wage workers in related jobs outside the minimum wage sector, defined using employment flows. I find an increase in wages and job-to-job transitions for sub-minimum wage workers in related jobs. The spillover effects are driven by workers who move to better-paying establishments, have limited labor market experience, and are closely linked to the minimum wage sector through former coworkers who were directly impacted by the minimum wage.

• Handelsblatt (in German): RWI-Studie: Baumindestlohn führt auch in anderen Branchen zu höherer Bezahlung 

The Role of Early Professional Networks in Shaping Career Paths (with Friederike Hertweck, Malte Sandner, and Ipek Yükselen). [Current Version]

Submitted

Abstract: College students have limited opportunities to interact with highly productive coworkers who can shape their early careers. Student jobs provide one potential channel for forming such professional connections, yet little is known about whether coworker quality in these positions affects labor market entry. Using administrative data linking university records to students’ pre- and post-graduation employment histories, together with detailed coworker information, we estimate models with firm-by-occupation fixed effects and rich individual controls to address selection into student jobs. We find that exposure to higher-quality coworkers during student employment increases wages in graduates’ first post-graduation job. Additional evidence indicates that coworker referrals are the primary mechanism behind these effects.

• IAB-Forum (in German): Wer neben dem Studium mit den „richtigen“ Kollegen jobbt, kann die beruflichen Startchancen vielfach verbessern

Selected Work in Progress

Firms’ Hiring Policies for Top Positions and Workers’ Career Dynamics  (with Simon Trenkle)

Mimeo

Wage Setting, Information Frictions, and Confidence (with Simon Cordes and Max Müller)

Supporting Career Choices for Students with Special Educational Needs. Evaluating Intensified Career Counseling in an Experimental Design (with Silke Anger, Pascal Heß, and Ute Leber)

The Effect of Higher Wages in the Long-Term Care Sector on Employment, Firm Survival, Prices and Quality (with Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan, and Jonas Jessen)

Other Publications

RWI, IAW Tübingen and IZA Bonn (2020), Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Löhne und Arbeitszeiten (Effects of the statutory minimum wage on the wage structure and hours worked). Team: R. Bachmann, H. Bonin, B. Boockmann, G. Demir, R. Felder, I. Isphording, R. Kalweit, N. Laub, C. Vonnahme, C. Zimpelmann.

Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (BMAS) (Ed.), Kantar, IAB, IAW, IAQ, IZA and RWI (2021), Begleitevaluation der arbeitsmarktpolitischen Integrationsmaßnahmen für Geflüchtete – Schlussbericht. Forschungsbericht 587. BMAS: Berlin.

Bachmann, Ronald; Demir, Gökay; Green, Colin; Uhlendorff, Arne (2026): Technologischer Wandel und Löhne. Die Anpassung der Berufe spielt eine entscheidende Rolle. In: IAB-Kurzbericht, 01| 2026.

Anger, Silke; Demir, Gökay; Heusler, Anna; Schels, Brigitte (2026): Mobilitätsbereitschaft ausbildungsinteressierter Jugendlicher und ihre Hemmnisse. In: IAB-Forum, mimeo.

Artmann, E.; Bähr, S.; Bella, N.; Bernhard, S.; Bruckmeier, K.; Demir, G.; Falkenhain, M.; Fitzenberger, B.; Gellermann, J.; Hiesinger, K.; Heß, P.; Heuer, L.; Hohmeyer, K.; Jahn, F.; Kasrin, Z.; Köppen, M.; Krug, G.; Malschinger, P.; Mense, A.; Nivorozhkin, A.; Osiander, C.; Popp, M.; Promberger, M.; Rauch, A.; Reims, N.; Röhrer, S.; Senghaas, M.; Sommer, M.; Tübbicke, S.; Wippermann, M.; Wolf, K.; Wolf, M.; Wolff, J.; Zabel, C. (2025): IAB-Stellungnahme zum Referentenentwurf des 13. SGB-II-Änderungsgesetzes. Nürnberg: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), 20. November 2025.

Demir, Gökay; Hertweck, Friederike; Sandner, Malte; Yükselen, Ipek (2024): Wer neben dem Studium mit den „richtigen“ Kollegen jobbt, kann die beruflichen Startchancen vielfach verbessern, In: IAB-Forum 14. Oktober 2024