I am a Senior Researcher at IAB and an IZA@LISER research fellow. You can find my CV here.
My research focuses on labor market frictions and their influence on the effects of labor market institutions and wage inequality.
Email: Goekay.Demir@iab.de
IAB Page: https://iab.de/en/employee/demir-g%C3%B6kay/
IZA Page: https://www.iza.org/people/staff/29468/gokay-demir
Google Scholar Site: Here
Labor Market Polarization, Job Tasks, and Monopsony Power (with Ronald Bachmann and Hanna Frings). Journal of Human Resources, 57(S), S11-S49.
Using a semistructural approach based on a dynamic monopsony model, we examine to what extent workers performing different job tasks are exposed to different degrees of monopsony power and whether these differences in monopsony power have changed over the last 30 years. We find that workers performing mostly nonroutine cognitive tasks are exposed to a higher degree of monopsony power than workers performing routine or nonroutine manual tasks. Job-specific human capital and nonpecuniary job characteristics are the most likely explanations for this result. We find no evidence that labor market polarization has increased monopsony power over time.
How Important are Within-Occupation Task Changes for Wage Growth? Evidence from Administrative Micro Data (with Ronald Bachmann, Colin Green, and Arne Uhlendorff). Economica, 93(372), 1260-1299.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (in German): Automatisierung der Arbeit. Ein Hoch auf die Routinejobs.
We examine how changes in task content over time condition occupational wage development. Using survey data from Germany, we document substantial heterogeneity in within-occupational changes in task content. Combining this evidence with administrative data on individual employment outcomes over a 25-year period, we find important heterogeneity in wage penalties amongst jobs that were initially routine task intensive. While occupations that remain (relatively) routine intensive generate substantial wage penalties, occupations with a decreasing routine intensity experience stable or even increasing wages. These findings suggest that changing task profiles of occupations are an important adaptation mechanism to technological change. They cannot be explained by composition or cohort effects.
What Do Firms Know about Market Wages? (with Simon Cordes, Nathan Lazarus, and Max Müller) [Current Version]
We study firms' beliefs about the wage distribution using a large-scale survey of managers in Germany linked to administrative data. 80% of managers believe their firm pays at least the median wage. Comparing beliefs to administrative wage data, we document pervasive and asymmetric misperceptions: most managers overestimate their firm's relative wage and underestimate their workers' outside options. Beliefs are related to firm outcomes: firms with inaccurate beliefs experience higher separation rates, slower employment growth, and recruit lower-ability workers. The most-biased managers are also the most confident in their beliefs, and providing information about wages does not shift managerial beliefs.
Labor Market Frictions and Spillover Effects from Publicly Announced Sectoral Minimum Wages [Current Version] [Online Appendix ]
Submitted
Handelsblatt (in German): RWI-Studie: Baumindestlohn führt auch in anderen Branchen zu höherer Bezahlung
This paper analyzes the horizontal spillover effects of Germany’s first sectoral minimum wage. Using linked employer-employee administrative data and a difference-in-differences design, I examine how the public announcement and introduction of the minimum wage affected sub-minimum wage workers in related jobs outside the covered sector. I define the related jobs using employment flows and find an increase in wages and job-to-job transitions for sub-minimum wage workers in these jobs, beginning precisely in the month of the public announcement. These spillover effects were driven by workers who reallocated to higher-paying establishments.
Coworker Networks from Student Jobs: A Flying Start at Labor Market Entry? (with Friederike Hertweck, Malte Sandner, and Ipek Yükselen). [Current Version]
Submitted
IAB-Forum (in German): Wer neben dem Studium mit den „richtigen“ Kollegen jobbt, kann die beruflichen Startchancen vielfach verbessern
Professional networks can ease labor market entry, yet college students have few opportunities to build them. Student jobs offer one such opportunity. We study whether the quality of the coworker networks students form in these jobs affects their transition into the labor market. We use German administrative data that link university records to students’ employment histories before and after graduation and to their coworkers during student employment. We measure network quality by former coworkers’ earnings at the time of the student’s graduation. To address selection into student jobs, we condition on firm-by-occupation fixed effects and control for a rich set of individual characteristics. A 10 percent increase in former coworkers’ average earnings raises graduates’ wages in their first job by about 1 percent. Evidence on job search behavior points to coworker referrals as the main mechanism.
Firms’ Hiring Policies for Top Positions and Workers’ Career Dynamics (with Simon Trenkle)
Mimeo
Supporting Career Choices for Students with Special Educational Needs. Evaluating Intensified Career Counseling in an Experimental Design (with Silke Anger, Pascal Heß, Ute Leber, and Carina Toussaint)
The Effect of Higher Wages in the Long-Term Care Sector on Employment, Firm Survival, Prices and Quality (with Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan, and Jonas Jessen)
RWI, IAW Tübingen and IZA Bonn (2020), Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Löhne und Arbeitszeiten (Effects of the statutory minimum wage on the wage structure and hours worked). Team: R. Bachmann, H. Bonin, B. Boockmann, G. Demir, R. Felder, I. Isphording, R. Kalweit, N. Laub, C. Vonnahme, C. Zimpelmann.
Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (BMAS) (Ed.), Kantar, IAB, IAW, IAQ, IZA and RWI (2021), Begleitevaluation der arbeitsmarktpolitischen Integrationsmaßnahmen für Geflüchtete – Schlussbericht. Forschungsbericht 587. BMAS: Berlin.
Bachmann, Ronald; Demir, Gökay; Green, Colin; Uhlendorff, Arne (2026): Technologischer Wandel und Löhne. Die Anpassung der Berufe spielt eine entscheidende Rolle. In: IAB-Kurzbericht, 01| 2026.
Anger, Silke; Demir, Gökay; Heusler, Anna; Schels, Brigitte (2026): Mobilitätsbereitschaft ausbildungsinteressierter Jugendlicher und ihre Hemmnisse. In: IAB-Forum, mimeo.
Artmann, E.; Bähr, S.; Bella, N.; Bernhard, S.; Bruckmeier, K.; Demir, G.; Falkenhain, M.; Fitzenberger, B.; Gellermann, J.; Hiesinger, K.; Heß, P.; Heuer, L.; Hohmeyer, K.; Jahn, F.; Kasrin, Z.; Köppen, M.; Krug, G.; Malschinger, P.; Mense, A.; Nivorozhkin, A.; Osiander, C.; Popp, M.; Promberger, M.; Rauch, A.; Reims, N.; Röhrer, S.; Senghaas, M.; Sommer, M.; Tübbicke, S.; Wippermann, M.; Wolf, K.; Wolf, M.; Wolff, J.; Zabel, C. (2025): IAB-Stellungnahme zum Referentenentwurf des 13. SGB-II-Änderungsgesetzes. Nürnberg: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), 20. November 2025.
Demir, Gökay; Hertweck, Friederike; Sandner, Malte; Yükselen, Ipek (2024): Wer neben dem Studium mit den „richtigen“ Kollegen jobbt, kann die beruflichen Startchancen vielfach verbessern, In: IAB-Forum 14. Oktober 2024